A Note On Revenue Forecastingduring The Dukakis Administration
AbstractCritics of Governor Michael Dukakis have suggested that this year?s $400 million overestimate of tax revenues in Massachusetts casts doubt on his putative managerial skills. In this paper, we carefully examine the entire Dukakis forecasting record. We find that the 1988 experience was "unusual? in the sense that on average, revenue forecasts produced by his administration have been too low rather than too high. In addition, we find that there is no significant difference between the quality of the Dukakis forecasts and those of his predecessors in Massachusetts. Hence, those who seek to discover anything extraordinarily positive or negative about Dukakis? managerial capabilities should shift their attention to skills other than revenue forecasting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper in its series Papers with number 23.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 1988
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, PRINCETON NEW-JERSEY 08542 U.S.A.
Phone: (609) 258-4800
Web page: http://www.wws.princeton.edu/
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local government ; management ; fiscal policy;
Other versions of this item:
- Daniel R. Feenberg & Harvey S. Rosen, 1988. "A Note on Revenue Forecasting During the Dukakis Administration," NBER Working Papers 2667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel R. Feenberg & William Gentry & David Gilroy & Harvey S. Rosen, 1989.
"Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts,"
NBER Working Papers
2628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
- Feenberg, D.R. & Gentry, W. & Gilroy, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1988. "Testing The Rationality Of State Revenue Forecasts," Papers 16, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
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