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Estimating Conditional Expectations When Volatility Fluctuates

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Author Info
Robert F. Stambaugh

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Abstract

Asymptotic variances of estimated parameters in models of conditional expectations are calculated analytically assuming a GARCH process for conditional volatility. Under such heteroskedasticity, OLS estimators of parameters in single-period models can possess substantially larger asymptotic variances than GMM estimators employing additional multiperiod moment conditions - an approach yielding no efficiency gain under homoskedasticity. In estimating models of long-horizon expectations the VAR approach provides an efficiency advantage over long-horizon regressions under homoskedasticity, but that ordering can reverse under heteroskedasticity, especially when the conditional mean and variance are both persistent. In such cases, the VAR approach maintains a slight efficiency advantage if the OLS estimator is replaced by an alternative GMM estimator. Heteroskedasticity can increase dramatically the apparent asymptotic power advantages of long-horizon regressions to reject constant expectations against persistent alternatives.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 17-93.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:17-93

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1996. "Efficient Estimation of Linear Asset-Pricing Models with Moving Average Errors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, January.
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  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Geweke, John, 1981. "The Approximate Slopes of Econometric Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1427-42, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992. "Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Does Correcting for Heteroskedasticity Help?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Modeling Expected Stock Returns for Long and Short Horizons," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 42-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2005. "Optimal Instruments in Time Series: A Survey," Working Papers w0069, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," NBER Working Papers 11841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Paul Harrison & Harold H. Zhang, . "Cyclical Variation in the Risk and Return Relation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 175, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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