This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not correlated with the magnitude of average forecast errors. These results together are consistent with neither the rational expectations hypothesis nor reputation models with rational and strategic forecasters.
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research in its series Papers with number
513.
Length: 12 pages Date of creation: 2000 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:fth:osakae:513
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