Suppose competent economists obtain common information on business forecasts, and incompetent economists obtain independent information. If no one knows who is able, young economists mimic others because a forecast different from others indicated inability when it proves wrong. An older economist, however, can infer his ability from past information. Those who got useful information stop herding to signal their ability when economists are heterogeneous. All economists herd together when economists are homogenous and the merit from signaling is small. The empirical results suggests that Japanese economists are more homogenous than American.
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Paper provided by Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research in its series Papers with number
479.
Length: 42 pages Date of creation: 1999 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:fth:osakae:479
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Find related papers by JEL classification: D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
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Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2004.
"Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment,"
Discussion Papers
7, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
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