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Private Information and Trade Timing

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Author Info
Smith, L.

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Abstract

This paper investigates the Bayesian decision-theoretic foundations of the Wall Street adage that `timing is everything'. One might think that a `small' risk-neutral trader wishes to act immediately upon any private information he possesses. I begin with a counterintuitive nding that trade timing doesn't matter for an Arrow security, as one's expected return per dollar invested is a martingale. This timing irrelevance discovery motivates an analysis of general compound securities. While timing there is ambiguous, I nd that natural monotone likelihood ratio assumptions on both private and public information restore the intuition that one should trade with all due dispatch.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory in its series Papers with number 99-07.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:michet:99-07

Contact details of provider:
Postal: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL THEORY, ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN U.S.A.

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Related research
Keywords: DECISION MAKING ; FINANCIAL MARKET ; INFORMATION;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Athey, S, 1996. "Comparative Statics under Uncertainty : Single Crossing Properties and Log-Supermodularity," Working papers 96-22, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bossaerts, Peter, 1996. "Martingale Restrictions on Equilibrium Prices of Arrow-Debreu Securities Under Rational Expectations and Consistent Beliefs," Working Papers 958, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Park, 2008. "Bid-Ask Spreads and Volume:The Role of Trade Timing," Working Papers tecipa-309, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Park, Andreas & Sgroi, Daniel, 2008. "Herding and Contrarianism in a Financial Trading Experiment with Endogenous Timing," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 868, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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