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On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices. An Application to Stumpage Prices from Pacific Northwest National Forests

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Author Info

  • Saphores, J.D.
  • Khalaf, L.
  • Pelletier, D.

Abstract

Models use for natural resources prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from discrete, unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and ARCH effects, we propose to use bounds and bootstrap test techniques, thus solving the unidentified nuisance parameter problem. We apply this approach to stumpage price time series from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. Using real options, we then develop a stopping model to assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-grothw timber. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laval - Recherche en Energie in its series Papers with number 00-03.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:lavaen:00-03

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Postal: UNIVERSITE LAVAL, GREEN, DEPARTEMENT D'ECONOMIQUE, QUEBEC G1K 7P4.
Phone: (418) 656-2096
Fax: (418) 656-7412
Web page: http://www.green.ecn.ulaval.ca/
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Keywords: TIME SERIES ; TESTS ; ECONOMIC MODELS;

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Cited by:
  1. Khalaf, Lynda & Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Bilodeau, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Simulation-based exact jump tests in models with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 531-553, December.
  2. Hultkrantz, Lars & Andersson, Linda & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2014. "Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909–2012: Testing for non-stationarity," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 33-46.
  3. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien McMahon, 2006. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion," Working Papers 06-14, Bank of Canada.
  4. Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2005. "Exact tests of the stability of the Phillips curve: the Canadian case," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 445-460, April.
  5. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Hu, Hsu-Ning & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2010. "Jump dynamics with structural breaks for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 343-350, March.
  6. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices," Working Papers 04-5, Bank of Canada.

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