Yield Gap Momentum as a Leading Indicator to Predict Turning Points in Industrial Production Growth
AbstractThe use of leading indicators to predict turning points in key ouput economic indicators is well-known. Recent work has shown that momentum indicators are an improvement on standard indicators. This paper analyses the likely performance of the momentum of the gap between long- and short-term interest rates as a leading indicator for output growth. The calculations are performed for the UK and Germany. In the UK's case the momentum is found to be a useful addition to a portfolio of leading indicators. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out to examine the stability of the leading indicator.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Hertfordshire - Business Schoool in its series Papers with number 1998:21.
Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
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Postal: University of Hertfordshire, School of Business, Hertford Campus, Mangrove Road Hertford SG13 8QF, UK.
Phone: +44 (0)1707 284800
Fax: +44 (0)1707 284870
Web page: http://www.herts.ac.uk/courses/schools-of-study/business/
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MEASURING INSTRUMENTS ; INTEREST RATE ; ECONOMIC GROWTH;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
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