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Portfolio Diversification and Value at Risk Under Thick-Tailedness

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  • Rustam Ibragimov

Abstract

We present a unified approach to value at risk analysis under heavy-tailedness using new majorization theory for linear combinations of thick-tailed random variables that we develop. Among other results, we show that the stylized fact that portfolio diversification is always preferable is reversed for extremely heavy-tailed risks or returns. The stylized facts on diversification are nevertheless robust to thick-tailedness of risks or returns as long as their distributions are not extremely long-tailed. We further demonstrate that the value at risk is a coherent measure of risk if distributions of risks are not extremely heavy-tailed. However, coherency of the value at risk is always violated under extreme thick-tailedness. Extensions of the results to the case of dependence, including convolutions of a-symmetric distributions and models with common stochs are provided.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 2086.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:2086

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Cited by:
  1. Asche, Frank & Dahl, Roy Endre & Oglend, Atle, 2013. "Value-at-Risk: Risk assessment for the portfolio of oil and gas producers," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/3, University of Stavanger.
  2. Alfred Galichon, 2010. "The Var At Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 503-506.
  3. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Scholarly Articles 2624460, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Walden, Johan & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2008. "Portfolio Diversification under Local and Moderate Deviations from Power Laws," Scholarly Articles 2640586, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504, May.
  6. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2007. "Efficiency of linear estimators under heavy-tailedness: convolutions of [alpha]-symmetric distributions," Scholarly Articles 2623749, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Rustam Ibragimov & Johan Walden, 2011. "Value at risk and efficiency under dependence and heavy-tailedness: models with common shocks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 285-318, August.

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