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GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback

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Author Info
Fountas, S.
Karanasos, M.
Karanassou, M.

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Abstract

We examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty using a GARCH model that allows for simultaneous feedback between the conditional mean and variance of inflation. We also derive a number of theoretical econometric results and illustrate the relevance of these results with an empirical example of the US monthly inflation process.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by National University of Ireland, Galway - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 47.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:galeco:47

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Postal: National University of Ireland, Galway - Department of Economics.
Phone: +353-91 524411 ext. 2501
Fax: +353-91 524130
Web page: http://economics.nuigalway.ie/
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Related research
Keywords: INFLATION ; ECONOMIC MODELS ; ECONOMETRICS;

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C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 1998. "Sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate: A GARCH-M model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 535-563, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-41, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Karanasos, Menelaos, 1999. "The second moment and the autocovariance function of the squared errors of the GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 63-76, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-84, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hansson, Bjorn & Hordahl, Peter, 1997. " Changing Risk Premia: Evidence from a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 99(2), pages 335-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
  10. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-21, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hall, S G, 1991. "An Application of the Stochastic GARCH-in-Mean Model to Risk Premia in the London Metal Exchange," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(0), pages 57-71, Supplemen.
  12. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-82, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia, 1995. "U.K. Stock Returns: Predictability and Business Conditions," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(0), pages 85-102, Suppl..
  14. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  18. Menelaos Karanasos, . "Prediction in ARMA models with GARCH in Mean Effects," Discussion Papers 99/11, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  19. Fraser, Patricia, 1996. "UK Excess Share Returns: Firm Size and Volatility," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 71-84, February.
  20. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stilianos Fountas & Alexandra Ioannidis & Menelaos Karanasos, 2004. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and a common European Monetary Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 30, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Menelaos Karanasos, . "Some Exact Formulae for the Constant Correlation and Diagonal M - Garch Models," Discussion Papers 00/14, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  3. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Moments of the ARMA-EGARCH Model," Discussion Papers 00/29, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  7. Menelaos Karanasos, . "The Covariance Structure of Mixed ARMA Models," Discussion Papers 00/11, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Testing for conditional heteroscedasticity in the components of inflation," Banco de España Working Papers 0812, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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