In this paper, we draw on both the consistent specification testing and the predictive ability testing literatures and propose a test for predictive accuracy which is consistent against generic nonlinear alternatives. Broadly speaking, given a particular reference model, assume that the objective is to test whether there exists any alternative model, among an infinite number of alternatives, that has better predictive accuracy than the reference model, for a given loss function. A typical example is the case in which the reference model is a simple autoregressive model and the objective is to check whether a more accurate forecasting model can be constructed by including possibly unknown (non)linear functions of the past of the process or of the past of some other process(es). We propose a statistic which is similar in spirit to that of White (2000), although our approach differs from his as we allow for an infinite number of competing models that may be nested. In addition, we allow for non vanishing parameter estimation error. In order to construct valid asymptotic critical values, we implement a conditional p-value procedure which extends the work of Inoue (1999) by allowing for non vanishing parameter estimation error.
Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page
whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be
available.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Exeter, School of Business and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number
00/12.
Length: 27 pages Date of creation: 2000 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:fth:exetec:00/12
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Business and Economics University of Exeter Streatham Court Rennes Drive Exeter EX4 4PU Phone: (01392) 263218 Fax: (01392) 263242 Web page: http://www.exeter.ac.uk/sobe/ More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)