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A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Raltionship Between Money and Output

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Author Info
Rothman, P.
van Dijk, D.
Franses, P.H.

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Abstract

Using a standard 4-variable linear vector error correction model (VECM), we first show that the null hypothesis of linearity can be strongly rejected against the alternative of smooth transition autoregressive nonlinearity. An important result from this stage of the analysis is that the quarterly growth rate of money is identified as the transition variable, the variable which governs the smooth switching between regimes. This implies there is a nonlinear causal relationship between money and output. A smooth transition VECM (STVECM) is then used to examine whether money nonlinearly Granger causes output in the sense that lagged values of money enter the model's output equation as regressors. We evaluate this type of nonlinear Granger causality with both in-sample and out-of-sample analysis. For the in-sample analysis we compare alternative models using predictive accuracy tests

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute in its series Papers with number 9945/a.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fth:erroem:9945/a

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Keywords: LINEAR MODELS ; MONEY;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Consistent LM-Tests for Linearity Against Compound Smooth Transition Alternatives," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 42, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Working Papers 0403, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2008. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in Adjustments of Cointegrating Systems," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 876, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Randall E. Parker & Phillip Rothman & Original: August 2000. This version: June 2003., . "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre-World War I and Interwar Periods," Working Papers 0302, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market," Macroeconomics 0507019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jonathan B. Hill, 2005. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization up to Three Steps Ahead: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Econometrics 0503016, EconWPA, revised 23 Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert Sollis, 2004. "Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend-stationarity," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship," Macroeconomics 0407013, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. D. van Dijk & T. Terasvirta & P.H. Franses, 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Report 200, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. M Sensier & D R Osborn & N Öcal, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 10, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Consistent and Non-Degenerate Model Specification Tests Against Smooth Transition Alternatives," Working Papers 0406, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non)-Causality in a Time Varying Coefficient VAR Model," Studies in Economics 0802, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Jawadi Fredj & Koubaa Yousra, 2004. "Threshold Cointegration between Stock Returns : An application of STECM Models," Econometrics 0412001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear multivariate adjustment of the UK real exchange rate," City University Economics Discussion Papers 03/08, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
  17. Valerie Herzberg & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, . "Import prices and exchange rate pass-through: theory and evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 182, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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