Several recent studies show that seasonal variation and cyclical variation in unemployment are correlated. A common finding is that seasonality tends to differ across the business cycle stages of recessions and expansions. Since seasonal adjustment methods assume that the two sources of variation can somehow be separated, the present study examines the impact of seasonal adjustment on the analysis of cyclical patterns. Seasonally adjusted quarterly unemployment data for 5 G-7 countries are modeled by a Smooth Transition Autoregression [STAR] while the corresponding unadjusted data are modeled by a so-called Seasonal STAR [SEASTAR]. A comparison of the implied estimated peaks and troughs shows that there is substantial agreement on the business cycle chronologies, albeit that for seasonally adjusted data recessionary periods tend to last longer.
Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page
whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be
available.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute in its series Papers with number
9923/a.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".