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Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered

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Author Info
Campos, N.F.

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Abstract

There are two strands in the empirical literature on economic growth in transition economies. One focuses on the impact of reforms, while the other emphasizes sustainability issues and the growth prospects these economies face. The most common strategy, in the latter, has been to use coefficients from growth regressions, on large samples of developing countries, and impose them on transition economies' data to obtain projected growth rates. We refer to it as the BLR approach (because it uses specifications from Barro, and Levine and Renelt). We claim that the reported growth rates are suspiciously similar, painting an overly optimistic picture and yielding few policy lessons. We re-estimate the BLR equations for data on transition economies themselves and find that government expenditures have been positively associated and human capital has been negatively associated with output growth. These results contrast sharply with the assumptions and findings from the BLR approach, questioning its might and challenging our understanding of the transition process in its key dimension.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Commission of the EEC - Ecofin, Country Studies in its series Papers with number 146.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:eeccou:146

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Related research
Keywords: TRANSITION ECONOMIES ECONOMIC GROWTH

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "How Far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 98/53, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ke-young Chu & Gerd Schwartz, 1994. "Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 94/68, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Eduardo Borensztein & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies - Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Stabilization, adjustment, and growth prospects in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1855, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth during Post-Communist Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "CEEC Growth Projections: Certainly Necessary and Necessarily Uncertain," Diskussionsschriften dp0403, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Context is everything : measuring institutional change in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2269, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain & Mihaly Andras Kovacs & Zoltan Jakab & Katerina Smidkova & Urmas Sepp & Uros Cufer, 2004. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Macroeconomics 0403004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. János Gács, 2000. "Alternative Scenarios for Hungary 's Accession and Macroeconomic Development," KOPINT-DATORG Discussion Paper Archive 60, KOPINT DATORG LTD. Economic Research Division. [Downloadable!]
  7. J. Gacs, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Hungary and the Accession Process," Working Papers ir00013, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Boeri, Tito, 2001. "Transition with Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 257, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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