We test whether the profitability of HML, SMB, and WML can be linked to future GDP growth. Using data from ten countries, we find that HML and SMB contain significant information about future GDP growth. This information is to a large degree independent of that in the market factor. Even in the presence of popular business cycle variables, HML and SMB retain their ability to predict future economic growth in some countries. Our results support a risk-based explanation for the performance of HML and SMB. Little evidence was found to support such an explanation in the case of WML.
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Paper provided by Columbia - Graduate School of Business in its series Papers with number
99-11.
Find related papers by JEL classification: G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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John H. Cochrane, 1999.
"New Facts in Finance,"
NBER Working Papers
7169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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John H. Cochrane, 1999.
"New Facts in Finance,"
CRSP working papers
490, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
[Downloadable!]
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