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Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity and the Persistence of Aggregate Fluctuations

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Author Info
Michelacci, C.

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Abstract

It is well known from time series analysis that shocks to aggregate output have very persistent effects. This paper argues that the relation between the expected growth rate of a firm and its size\ provides a microfoundation for such aggregate persistence. The empirical evidence indicates that small firms grow faster than big ones. If this is true, a shock that reallocates units across sizes will be absorbed, yet at very low decreasing rates. Once the shock hits the system, firms are reallocated across sizes. If small firms grows faster than big ones, the shock will then be absorbed. However, fast growing small firms eventually become big and grow as big firms. Thus the number of small firms shrinks over time as well as the rate at which the shock is absorbed. This transmission mechanism reconciles the micro evidence with the observed degree of aggregate persistence. It requires changes in neither the number of firms in the market nor the rate of technological progress. It is merely the result of the cross-sectional heterogeneity that we observe in real economies.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros- in its series Papers with number 9906.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:cemfdt:9906

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Related research
Keywords: ECONOMIC MODELS ; TIME SERIES ; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & van Reenen, John, 1999. "Market Share, Market Value and Innovation in a Panel of British Manufacturing Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(3), pages 529-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jovanovic, B. & Nyarko, Y., 1996. "Learning by Doing and the Choice of Technology," Working Papers 96-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1996. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 12, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
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  9. Bertola, G. & Caballero, R.J., 1990. "Kinked Adjustment Costs And Aggregate Dynamics," Discussion Papers 1990_20, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
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  10. Liudas Giraitis & Peter M Robinson & Alexander Samarov, 1997. "Rate Optimal Semiparametric Estimation of the Memory Parameter of the Gaussian Time Serieswith Long-Range Dependence - (Now published in Journal of Time Series Analysis, 18 (1997), pp.49-60.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1997/323, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  11. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:322-44 is not listed on IDEAS
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  16. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jones, Robert & Newman, Geoffrey, 1995. "Adaptive Capital, Information Depreciation and Schumpeterian Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 897-915, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "VIRTUES OF BAD TIMES Interaction Between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 322-344, September. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Verspagen,Bart, 1999. "Intellectual Property Rights in the World Economy," Research Memoranda 016, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marc Henry & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2002. "The long range dependence paradigm for macroeconomics and finance," Discussion Papers 0102-19, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2005. "What is What?: A Simple Time-Domain Test of Long-memory vs. Structural Breaks," Economics Working Papers 954, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, Bart, 1999. "Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence," ECIS Working Papers 99.8, Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies, Eindhoven University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Paul Castillo & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Dollarization Persistence and Individual Heterogeneity," Macroeconomics 0512014, EconWPA, revised 31 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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