Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Monetary Policy Regimes and Inflation in the New-Keynesian Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bartholomew Moore

    (Fordham University)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper shows that plausible modifications to the Taylor rule for monetary policy can help explain several empirical anomalies to the behavior of inflation in the new--Keynesian general equilibrium model. The key anomalies considered are (1) the persistence of inflation, both in reduced form and after conditioning on inflation's driving processes, (2) the positive correlation between the output gap and the change in the inflation rate, and (3) the apparent bias in survey measures of expected inflation. The Taylor rule in this model includes the now standard assumption that the central bank smoothes changes to its target interest rate. It also includes Markov switching of a persistent inflation target between a low target rate and a high target rate. The model is calibrated to match Benati's (2008) result that, historically, changes in monetary policy lead to a statistically significant change in the persistence of inflation. Matching Benati's result requires a reduction in an exogenous, hence structural, source of persistence. However, inflation in the model inherits additional, non-structural, persistence from the process that governs the inflation target. As a result, the model is able to replicate measures of inflation persistence, even after conditioning on inflation's driving processes. Agents with rational expectations and knowledge of the current inflation target will be aware of the possibility of a future target switch, causing their expectations to appear biased in small samples. Finally, with sticky nominal prices a discrete drop to the low-inflation target requires a loss of output while previously-set prices adjust.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/Graduate_Schools/gsas/economics/DP2013_08_Moore.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Fordham University, Department of Economics in its series Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series with number dp2013-08.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2013-08

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.fordham.edu/economics/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Monetary Policy; Markov Switching; Inflation Persistence; Expectations;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2013-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fordham Economics).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.