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The Credit Default Swap Market’s Reaction to Earnings Announcements

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Author Info
Caitlin Ann Greatrex (Fordham University, Department of Economics)
Abstract

This paper examines the efficiency of the CDS market by conducting a comparative event study in which both the CDS and the stock markets’ responses to earnings announcements are considered. I find that both markets have statistically significant reactions to earnings announcements and both markets anticipate these informational events up to 90 trading days prior to announcement. I further find that neither markets’ reaction to earnings announcements is entirely efficient as there is evidence of both over- and under-reaction to earnings news. However, results are sensitive to both the categorization of earnings and the model used to generate abnormal performance.

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Paper provided by Fordham University, Department of Economics in its series Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series with number dp2008-06.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2008-06

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Web page: http://www.fordham.edu/economics/
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Related research
Keywords: Credit default swap; market efficiency; earnings announcements; credit ratings.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. Brown, Stewart L, 1978. "Earnings Changes, Stock Prices, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 17-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo-Helfenberger, Rodolfo, 2004. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," SIFR Research Report Series 32, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Rendleman, Richard Jr. & Jones, Charles P. & Latane, Henry A., 1982. "Empirical anomalies based on unexpected earnings and the importance of risk adjustments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 269-287, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Victor L. Bernard & Jacob K. Thomas & Jeffery S. Abarbanell, 1993. "How Sophisticated Is The Market In Interpreting Earnings News?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(2), pages 54-63. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jennifer Conrad & Bradford Cornell & Wayne R. Landsman, 2002. "When Is Bad News Really Bad News?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2507-2532, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kwan, Simon H., 1996. "Firm-specific information and the correlation between individual stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 63-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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