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Global food demand and the contribution of livestock as we enter the new millennium

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  • Delgado, Christopher L.
  • Courbois, Claude
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.

Abstract

People in developed countries currently consume about 3 to 4 times as much meat and fish, and 5 to 6 times as much milk products per capita as in developing Asia and Africa. Meat, milk, and fish consumption per capita has barely grown in the developed countries as a whole over the past 20 years. Yet poor people everywhere clearly desire to eat more animal protein products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. Growth in per capita consumption and production has in fact occurred in regions such as developing Asia, and most particularly China. Per capita consumption of animal proteins and use of cereals as feed in Asia have both grown in the 3 to 5 percent per annum range over the past 20 years. By 2020, according to IFPRI's IMPACT model projections, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 47 percent currently to 63 percent. IMPACT projections under various technical and economic assumptions suggest that there is enough production supply response in world systems to accomplish these production increases smoothly. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of restrictions on China's ability to produce more feedgrains illustrates that in a system of linked global markets for cereals and livestock products, such restrictions are not effective at lowering Chinese livestock consumption, which is driven by global trade in manufactures, although they do lower Chinese livestock production. The resulting imbalance raises world feed costs by one-third in 2020 over anticipated levels, encourages increased livestock exports from Latin America, discourages livestock exports from the U.S., and reduces meat and cereals imports and consumption in the poorer countries of Africa and Asia.

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File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/pubs_divs_mtid_dp_papers_dp21.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series MTID discussion papers with number 21.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:mtiddp:21

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Keywords: Food consumption forecasting. ; Proteins in human nutrition. ; Livestock China. ; China ;

References

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  1. Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), June.
  2. Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ?:," EPTD discussion papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Kristjanson, P. M. & Swallow, B. M. & Rowlands, G. J. & Kruska, R. L. & de Leeuw, P. N., 1999. "Measuring the costs of African animal trypanosomosis, the potential benefits of control and returns to research," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 79-98, January.
  2. Jason Fellman & Eldon Franz & Chelsea Crenshaw & Denise Elston, 2009. "Global estimates of soil carbon sequestration via livestock waste: a STELLA simulation," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 871-885, August.
  3. HUBERT Marie-Hélène & MOREAUX Michel, 2007. "The challenge of meeting the future food needs," LERNA Working Papers, LERNA, University of Toulouse 07.17.238, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  4. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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