IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/mssddp/52.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fish as food

Author

Listed:
  • Delgado, Christopher L.
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Wada, Nikolas
  • Meijer, Siet
  • Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin

Abstract

"This paper reports results of incorporating fish into IMPACT, a global model of food supply and demand that estimates market-clearing prices to 2020 for 32 commodities in 36 regions. It summarizes results for production, consumption, net exports and real price changes for 10 economic categories of fisheries items, disaggregated into 15 geographic regions of the world. Under the medium-variant scenario for the uncertain capture fisheries sectors, global production of food fish is projected to rise by 1.5% annually through 2020, with two-thirds of this from aquaculture, whose share in total food fish production rises to 41%. Global per capita fish consumption is projected to be 17.1 kg in 2020, with sensitivity analysis indicating a margin of 2 kg/capita either way based on extreme scenarios for capture and aquaculture. Most growth will occur in developing countries, which will account for 79% of food fish production in 2020. China's share of world production will continue to expand, while that of Japan, the EU, and former USSR will continue to contract. Real fish prices will rise 4 to 16% by 2020, while meat prices will fall 3%. Fishmeal and oil prices will rise 18%; use of these commodities will increasingly be concentrated in carnivorous aquaculture. Growing domestic demand will dampen fish exports from developing countries. Sensitivity analysis incorporating a very pessimistic view of capture fisheries leads to escalating food fish prices (+69% for high-value finfish) and soaring fishmeal prices (+134%), whereas an optimistic view of increased investment in aquaculture lowers real prices of low value food fish (-12%), and raises fishmeal prices (+42%)." Authors' Abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wada, Nikolas & Meijer, Siet & Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin, 2002. "Fish as food," MSSD discussion papers 52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:mssddp:52
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/59026/filename/59027.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    • Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wada, Nikolas & Meijer, Siet & Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin, 2002. "Fish as food," MTID discussion papers 52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Awudu Abdulai & Christopher Delgado, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation of Short- and Long-run Agricultural Wage Formation in Ghana," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 169-185.
    2. Minot, Nicholas, 2000. "Generating Disaggregated Poverty Maps: An Application to Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 319-331, February.
    3. Kherallah, Mylène & Minot, Nicholas & Gruhn, Peter, 1999. "Adjustment of wheat production to market reform in Egypt," MTID discussion papers 32, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Staal, Steven & Delgado, Christopher L. & Nicholson, Charles F., 1996. "Smallholder dairying under transactions costs in East Africa," MTID discussion papers 9, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1999. "China'S Food Economy To The 21st Century: Supply, Demand, And Trade," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 171896, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Durlauf, Steven N. & Fafchamps, Marcel, 2005. "Social Capital," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1639-1699, Elsevier.
    7. Badiane, Ousmane, 1998. "Marketing policy reform and competitiveness," MTID discussion papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Dorosh, Paul A. & Shahabuddin, Quazi & Aziz, M. Abdul & Farid, Naser, 2002. "Bumper crops, producer incentives and persistent poverty," MSSD discussion papers 43, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Minot, Nicholas & Baulch, Bob, 2002. "The spatial distribution of poverty in Vietnam and the potential for targeting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2829, The World Bank.
    10. Gulati, Ashok & Narayanan, Sudha, 2002. "Rice trade liberalization and poverty," MTID discussion papers 51, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Dorosh, Paul A. & Shahabuddin, Quazi, 2002. "Rice price stabilization in Bangladesh," MTID discussion papers 46, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Baulch, Bob & Minot, Nicholas, 2002. "Poverty mapping with aggregate census data," MSSD discussion papers 49, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Rashid, Shahidur, 2002. "Dynamics of agricultural wage and rice price in Bangladesh," MSSD discussion papers 44, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Badiane, Ousmane & Nuppenau, Ernst-August, 1997. "Reforming and promoting local agricultural markets," MTID discussion papers 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Rosegrant, Mark W, 1999. "China's Food Economy to the Twenty-first Century: Supply, Demand, and Trade," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(4), pages 737-766, July.
    16. Rashid, Shahidur & Sharma, Manohar & Zeller, Manfred, 2002. "Micro-lending for small farmers in Bangladesh," MSSD discussion papers 45, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Narayanan, Sudha & Gulati, Ashok, 2002. "Globalization and the smallholders," MTID discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Rusike, Joseph, 1995. "The development of maize seed markets in Sub-Saharan Africa," MTID discussion papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Kherallah, Mylène & Kirsten, Johann, 2001. "The new institutional economics," MTID discussion papers 41, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Badiane, Ousmane & Shively, Gerald E., 1997. "The response of local maize prices to the 1983 currency devaluation in Ghana," MTID discussion papers 12, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    21. Nicholas Minot & Lisa Daniels, 2005. "Impact of global cotton markets on rural poverty in Benin," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 453-466, November.
    22. Shahabuddin, Quazi & Dorosh, Paul A., 2002. "Comparative advantage in Bangladesh crop production," MTID discussion papers 47, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    23. Minot, Nicholas & Kherallah, Mylène & Berry, Philippe, 2000. "Fertilizer market reform and the determinants of fertilizer use in Benin and Malawi," MTID discussion papers 40, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    24. Christopher Delgado & Pierre Crosson & Claude Courbois, 1997. "The Impact of Livestock and Fisheries on Food Availability and Demand in 2020," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1471-1475.
    25. Goletti, Francesco & Minot, Nicholas, 1997. "Rice markets, agricultural growth, and policy options in Viet Nam," MTID discussion papers 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    26. Goletti, Francesco & Minot, Nicholas & Berry, Philippe, 1997. "Marketing constraints on rice exports from Viet Nam," MTID discussion papers 15, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    27. Fafchamps, Marcel & Minten, Bart, 2001. "Property Rights in a Flea Market Economy," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 229-67, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dorosh, Paul A. & Stifel, David & Minten, Bart, 2003. "Transaction costs and agricultural productivity," MSSD discussion papers 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gulati, Ashok & Narayanan, Sudha, 2002. "Rice trade liberalization and poverty," MTID discussion papers 51, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Nicholas Minot & Lisa Daniels, 2005. "Impact of global cotton markets on rural poverty in Benin," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 453-466, November.
    3. Shahabuddin, Quazi & Dorosh, Paul A., 2002. "Comparative advantage in Bangladesh crop production," MTID discussion papers 47, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Dorosh, Paul A. & Shahabuddin, Quazi, 2002. "Rice price stabilization in Bangladesh," MSSD discussion papers 46, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Rashid, Shahidur & Sharma, Manohar & Zeller, Manfred, 2002. "Micro-lending for small farmers in Bangladesh," MSSD discussion papers 45, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Shahidur Rashid, 2004. "Spatial Integration of Maize Markets in Post-liberalised Uganda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 13(1), pages 102-133, March.
    7. Kherallah, Mylene & Lofgren, Hans & Gruhn, Peter & Reeder, Meyra M., 2000. "Wheat policy reform in Egypt: adjustment of local markets and options for future reforms," Research reports 115, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Haggblade, Steven, 2003. "Successes in African agriculture," MSSD discussion papers 53, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Dwayne Benjamin & Loren Brandt, 2002. "Agriculture and Income Distribution in Rural Vietnam under Economic Reforms: A Tale of Two Regions," Working Papers benjamin-02-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    10. Benjamin Davis, 2002. "Is it Possible to Avoid a Lemon? Reflections on Choosing a Poverty Mapping Method," Working Papers in Food Policy and Nutrition 08, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy.
    11. Huang, Qiuqiong & Rozelle, Scott & Lohmar, Bryan & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia, 2006. "Irrigation, agricultural performance and poverty reduction in China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 30-52, February.
    12. Xiaobing Wang & Futoshi Yamauchi & Jikun Huang, 2016. "Rising wages, mechanization, and the substitution between capital and labor: evidence from small scale farm system in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(3), pages 309-317, May.
    13. Cavatassi, Romina & Davis, Benjamin & Lipper, Leslie, 2004. "Estimating poverty over time and space: Construction of a time-variant poverty index for Costa Rica," ESA Working Papers 23791, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    14. Headey, Derek D. & Hoddinott, John, 2016. "Agriculture, nutrition and the green revolution in Bangladesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 122-131.
    15. Nicholas Minot & Bob Baulch, 2005. "Poverty Mapping with Aggregate Census Data: What is the Loss in Precision?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 5-24, February.
    16. Zhu, Jing & Zhu, J., 2003. "Public Investment And China'S Grain Production Competitiveness Under Wto," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25825, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Gregory J. Scott & Athanasios Petsakos & Henry Juarez, 2019. "Climate change, food security, and future scenarios for potato production in India to 2030," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 43-56, February.
    18. Pansini, Rosaria Vega, 2004. "La Fissazione della International Poverty Line: una nuova proposta applicata al Vietnam [Setting a new International Poverty Line: a new proposal applied to Vietnam]," MPRA Paper 4923, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Narayanan, Sudha & Gulati, Ashok, 2002. "Globalization and the smallholders," MSSD discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Xiaohui Ding & Chen Zhou & Volker Mauerhofer & Weizhou Zhong & Guoping Li, 2019. "From Environmental Soundness to Sustainable Development: Improving Applicability of Payment for Ecosystem Services Scheme for Diverting Regional Sustainability Transition in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:mssddp:52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.