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Macroeconomic crises and poverty monitoring

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  • Datt, Gaurav
  • Ravallion, Martin

Abstract

Assessment of the welfare impacts of low-frequency events, such as macroeconomic crises and stabilizations, are often confounded by sampling and nonsampling errors that generate fluctuations in household survey-based welfare indicators; they are also limited by our ability to explain fluctuations in terms of other available data. Basing policy on short-term movements in welfare indicators can thus be hazardous. There was a sharp increase in India's poverty measures in the aftermath of the mid-1991 crisis and the ensuing stabilization reforms. However, only one-tenth of the increase in measured poverty is explicable in terms of the variables one would expect to transmit the shock. Poverty measures soon returned to their pre-reform levels, belying the notion of a reforms-induced structural break.

Suggested Citation

  • Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Macroeconomic crises and poverty monitoring," FCND discussion papers 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:fcnddp:20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Ravallion & Gaurav Datt, 1995. "Is Targeting Through a Work Requirement Efficient? Some Evidence for Rural India," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-41, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    3. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1996. "How Important to India's Poor Is the Sectoral Composition of Economic Growth?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Lipton, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 1995. "Poverty and policy," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2551-2657, Elsevier.
    5. Gaurav Datt & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Why Have Some Indian States Done Better than Others at Reducing Rural Poverty?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 17-38, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jha, Raghbendra, 2000. "Reducing Poverty and Inequality in India Has Liberalization Helped?," WIDER Working Papers 295536, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Gaurav Datt & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Farm productivity and rural poverty in India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 62-85.
    3. Raghbendra Jha, 2006. "Vulnerability of Consumption Growth in Rural India," ASARC Working Papers 2006-04, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    4. Sudip Ranjan Basu, 2004. "Economic Growth, Well-Being and Governance under Economic Reforms: Evidence from Indian States," IHEID Working Papers 05-2004, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    5. Gutner, Tammi, 1999. "The political economy of Food subsidy reform in Egypt," FCND briefs 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Datt, Gaurav, 1998. "Poverty in India and Indian states," FCND discussion papers 47, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Raghbendra Jha, 2002. "Rural Poverty in India: Structure, determinants and suggestions for policy reform," ASARC Working Papers 2002-07, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    8. Hazell, P. B. R. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2001. "Agricultural research and poverty reduction:," 2020 vision discussion papers 34, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Manisha Chakrabarty, 2006. "Earnings Inequality in India: Has the Rise of Caste and Religion Based Politics in India had an Impact?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 819, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. T. Krishna Kumar & Sushanta Mallick & Jayarama Holla, 2009. "Estimating Consumption Deprivation in India Using Survey Data: A State-Level Rural-Urban Analysis Before and During Reform Period," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 441-470.
    11. Surajit Deb, 2002. "The Debate on Agriculture-Industry Terms of Trade in India," Working papers 109, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

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