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Working Paper 07-13 - Walking the green mile in Employment - Employment projections for a green future

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  • Danielle Devogelaer
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    Abstract

    In this working paper, the employment effect triggered by a transition towards an all renewable energy system in Belgium by 2050 is scrutinized. The job impact is estimated up until the year 2030. Using a labour intensity methodology, net job gains are to be expected in each renewable trajectory for any given year. A distinction is made between construction, installation and manufacturing (CIM) and operations, maintenance and fuel processing (O&M) jobs, with the maximum amount of CIM jobs created over the reference scenario exceeding the amount of O&M jobs. This points to the fact that renewable energy sources tend to have a higher construction and installation component in employment than fossil fuels. These installation jobs, along with numerous other job types (e.g. monitoring, planning, certifying), are bound to be and remain domestic. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of applying a decreasing employment multiplier over time is modeled, accompanied by an enumeration of arguments pro and contra using this type of multiplier. All through the paper, a number of reflections are brought to the fore that may nuance the obtained figures and effects. In order for the jobs to materialize, targeted educations, preferably in close collaboration with industry, technical schooling and interest in science are crucial. Enabling policies and measures within a solid, transparent policy framework should accompany the whole process. In this regard, some policy domains and actions are described that could prove useful in tapping the vast job potential.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium in its series Working Papers with number 1307.

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    Date of creation: 09 Sep 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1307

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    Related research

    Keywords: Employment; Long-term energy projections; Input-output analysis; Renewable energy sources;

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    1. Philippe Quirion, 2013. "L'effet net sur l'emploi de la transition énergétique en France : Une analyse input-output du scénario négaWatt," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866447, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866447 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lachenmaier, Stefan & Rottmann, Horst, 2011. "Effects of innovation on employment: A dynamic panel analysis," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 210-220, March.
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