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Working Paper 08-11 - What has been the damage of the financial crisis to Belgian GDP? An assessment based on the FPB’s medium-term outlook

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  • Igor Lebrun
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    Abstract

    A consensus quickly emerged among national and international organizations, based on past experiences, that the financial crisis that erupted in 2008 would have a long-lasting impact on the level of output. An initial quantification of the potential output loss imputable to the crisis for Belgium was presented in WP 10-09. This Working Paper provides an update of this analysis and examines through the successive revisions of projections made by the Federal Planning Bureau how the perception of the crisis has evolved over the last two years and what its implications are for the medium run. The shortfall in potential output is now estimated to be less than 3 %, close to the area-wide loss estimated for the OECD-countries.

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    File URL: http://www.plan.be/admin/uploaded/201106221430150.wp201108.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium in its series Working Papers with number 1108.

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    Date of creation: 21 Jun 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1108

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    Keywords: Financial crisis; Potential output;

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    1. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
    2. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 420, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Christophe Planas & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "Does capacity utilisation help estimating the TFP cycle?," European Economy - Economic Papers 410, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Patrice Ollivaud & Pete Richardson & Franck Sédillot, 2006. "New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 482, OECD Publishing.
    6. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2010. "Assessing the Impact of the Financial Crisis on Structural Unemployment in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 767, OECD Publishing.
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