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Working Paper 03-09 - S3BE : un modèle macroéconomique de long terme pour l’économie belge

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  • Igor Lebrun
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    Abstract

    Several legal missions from the Federal Planning Bureau require the construction of long-term macroeconomic scenarios for the Belgian economy. In order to increase the consistency of these scenarios and to build them within a rigorous theoretical framework, it appeared important to develop a new long-term model that considers economic growth as depending upon the supply of production factors.The theoretical structure of the model draws on similar work done by the Dutch CPB. In the working paper we detail the construction, the properties and the estimation of the parameters based upon quarterly data from the Belgian national accounts. The model should contribute for instance to the production of long-term macro-economic scenarios to evaluate the budgetary cost of ageing.

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    File URL: http://www.plan.be/admin/uploaded/200905080836230.wp200903.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium in its series Working Papers with number 0903.

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    Date of creation: 08 Apr 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:0903

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic growth; Long-term projection; Supply-side;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Francis Bossier & Ingrid Bracke & Sébastien Gillis & Filip Vanhorebeek, 2004. "Working Paper 05-04 - Une nouvelle version du modèle HERMES
      [Working Paper 05-04 - Een nieuwe versie van het HERMES-model]
      ," Working Papers 0405, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    2. Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Patrice Ollivaud & Pete Richardson & Franck Sédillot, 2006. "New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 482, OECD Publishing.
    3. C�cile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 247, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Ludovic Dobbelaere & Bart Hertveldt & Evelyne Hespel & Igor Lebrun, 2003. "Working Paper 17-03 - Tout savoir sur la confection du budget économique
      [Working Paper 17-03 - De opmaak van de economische begroting : een handleiding]
      ," Working Papers 0317, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    5. Bart Hertveldt & Igor Lebrun, 2003. "Working Paper 06-03 - MODTRIM II : A quarterly model for the Belgian economy," Working Papers 0306, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    6. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    7. Koen Hendrickx & Christophe Joyeux & Luc Masure & Peter Stockman, 2003. "Working Paper 13-03 - Un nouveau modèle macro-économétrique du marché du travail : estimation, simulation de base et simulations de politiques d’emploi
      [Working Paper 13-03 - Een nieuw macro-
      ," Working Papers 0313, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
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