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Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains

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Author Info

  • Mikkel Bojesen

    ()
    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Hans Skov-Petersen

    ()
    (Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen)

  • Morten Gylling

    ()
    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

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    Abstract

    This paper forecasts the spatial distribution of Danish husbandry production from 2009 until 2025. The study builds on a time series data set (1999 – 2009) for the number of livestock units (including piglets, finishers, sows, dairy cattle and young stock) measured by 1km2 grid cells for the whole of Denmark. A Markov Chain Model (MCM) was applied to estimate transition probabilities for the future livestock intensity composition, divided into state classes. Neighbouring effects between grid cells were not included. The modelled transition probabilities fit the data very well in all state classes, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented. The strategic objective of the model is to provide data for the spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production which can form the basis for a location analysis for future biogas plants.

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    File URL: http://okonomi.foi.dk/workingpapers/WPpdf/WP2013/IFRO_WP_2013_16.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics in its series IFRO Working Paper with number 2013/16.

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    Length: 23 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:foi:wpaper:2013_16

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    Web page: http://www.ifro.ku.dk/
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    Related research

    Keywords: structural changes; Markov Chain Models; biogas; agriculture;

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    1. Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), October.
    2. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands - A Markov Chain Analysis," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Silke Huettel & Anne Margarian, 2009. "Structural change in the West German agricultural sector," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(s1), pages 759-772, November.
    4. Allen, P. Geoffrey, 1994. "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 81-135, June.
    5. Happe, K. & Hutchings, N.J. & Dalgaard, T. & Kellerman, K., 2011. "Modelling the interactions between regional farming structure, nitrogen losses and environmental regulation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 281-291, March.
    6. Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Matis, J. H. & Saito, T. & Grant, W. E. & Iwig, W. C. & Ritchie, J. T., 1985. "A Markov chain approach to crop yield forecasting," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 171-187.
    8. Axel Tonini & Roel Jongeneel, 2009. "The distribution of dairy farm size in Poland: a markov approach based on information theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 55-69.
    9. Rasmussen, Svend, 2011. "Estimating the Technical Optimal Scale of Production in Danish Agriculture," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114790, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Balmann, Alfons, 1997. "Farm-Based Modelling of Regional Structural Change: A Cellular Automata Approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 85-108.
    11. Christopher Jackson, . "Multi-State Models for Panel Data: The msm Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 38(i08).
    12. Happe, Kathrin & Balmann, Alfons & Kellermann, Konrad & Sahrbacher, Christoph, 2008. "Does structure matter? The impact of switching the agricultural policy regime on farm structures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 431-444, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Mikkel Bojesen & Luc Boerboom & Hans Skov-Petersen, 2014. "Towards a sustainable capacity expansion of the Danish biogas sector," IFRO Working Paper 2014/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.

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