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Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains

Author

Listed:
  • Mikkel Bojesen

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Hans Skov-Petersen

    (Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen)

  • Morten Gylling

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

This paper forecasts the spatial distribution of Danish husbandry production from 2009 until 2025. The study builds on a time series data set (1999 – 2009) for the number of livestock units (including piglets, finishers, sows, dairy cattle and young stock) measured by 1km2 grid cells for the whole of Denmark. A Markov Chain Model (MCM) was applied to estimate transition probabilities for the future livestock intensity composition, divided into state classes. Neighbouring effects between grid cells were not included. The modelled transition probabilities fit the data very well in all state classes, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented. The strategic objective of the model is to provide data for the spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production which can form the basis for a location analysis for future biogas plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikkel Bojesen & Hans Skov-Petersen & Morten Gylling, 2013. "Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains," IFRO Working Paper 2013/16, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:foi:wpaper:2013_16
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    File URL: http://okonomi.foi.dk/workingpapers/WPpdf/WP2013/IFRO_WP_2013_16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikkel Bojesen & Luc Boerboom & Hans Skov-Petersen, 2014. "Towards a sustainable capacity expansion of the Danish biogas sector," IFRO Working Paper 2014/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Bojesen, M. & Birkin, M. & Clarke, G., 2014. "Spatial competition for biogas production using insights from retail location models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 617-628.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural changes; Markov Chain Models; biogas; agriculture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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