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Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis and the Leverage Cycle

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  • Sudipto Bhattacharya

    ()

  • Charles Goodhart

    ()

  • Dimitrios Tsomocos
  • Alexandros Vardoulakis

    ()

Abstract

Busts after periods of prolonged prosperity have been found to be catastrophic. Financial institutions increase their leverage and shift their portfolios towards projects that were previously considered too risky. This results from institutions rationally updating their expectations and becoming more optimistic about the future prospects of the economy. Default is inevitably harsher when a bad shock occurs after periods of good news. Commonly used measures to forecast risk in the system, such as VIX, fail to capture this phenomenon, as they are also biased by optimistic expectations. Competition among financial institutions for better relative performance exacerbates the boom-bust cycle. We explore the relative advantages of alternative regulations in reducing financial fragility, and suggest a novel criterion for improvement of aggregate welfare.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Special Papers with number sp202.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp202

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," 2013 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Delis, Manthos D & Kouretas, Georgios & Tsoumas, Chris, 2011. "Anxious periods and bank lending," MPRA Paper 32422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan & Farmer, J. Doyne & Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-212.

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