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FCIs and Economic Activity :Some International Evidence

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  • Charles Goodhart

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  • Boris Hofmann

Abstract

A Monetary Conditions Index (MCI), a weighted average of the short-term real interest rate and the real exchange rate, is a commonly used indicator of aggregate demand conditions. In-sample evidence for the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK suggests that a Financial Conditions Index (FCI), also comprising property prices and share prices, would be a better indicator for economic activity than the standard MCI. Out-of sample the FCI also performs better than the MCI, but its overall performance is mixed. An FCI would have predicted the recent economic downturn in Japan and the UK, but not in the US and the euro area.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Special Papers with number sp151.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp151

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Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/

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  1. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
  2. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Direct Effects of Base Money on Aggregate Demand: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2666, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Peeters, Marga, 1999. "Measuring monetary conditions in Europe: Use and limitations of the monetary conditions index," MPRA Paper 23534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  6. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
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