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Managing Government Default Risk in Federal States

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Author Info
Jan J.G. Lemmen

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Abstract

Federal governments typically apply fiscal rules to impose fiscal discipline on lower levels of government. Analogously, by trading in government debt, government bond markets impose fiscal discipline on lower levels of governments. this paper finds new evidence for Australia, Canada and Germany showing that whether these rules or markets matter, or not, may be a function of the worlds appetite for credit risk. Rules and markets only tend to bite during periods when there is a low appetite for credit risk in world financial markets. Therefore, this paper proposes an alternative more incentive-based framework of fiscal discipline. this incentive-based framework should increase the sensitivity of government borrowing costs with respect to debt levels, increase the geographical diversification of investors portfolios with respect to government bonds, and prevent government financing from fuelling private sector bailout expectations.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Special Papers with number sp116.

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Date of creation: Aug 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp116

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  1. Guiseppe Pisauro, . "Intergovernmental Relations and Fiscal Discipline: Between Common Tax Resources and Soft Budget Constraints," IMF Working Papers 01/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ludger Schuknecht & Jürgen von Hagen & Guido Wolswijk, 2008. "Government risk premiums in the bond market. EMU and Canada," Working Paper Series 879, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: evidence for the German Länder," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Petr Hedbávný & Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "A Fiscal Rule that has Teeth: A Suggestion for a Fiscal Sustainability Council underpinned by the Financial Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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