On the drivers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels
AbstractWe use the recent introduction of biofuels to study the effect of industry factors on the relationships between wholesale commodity prices. Correlations between agricultural products and oil are strongest in the 2005-09 period, coinciding with the boom of biofuels, and remain substantial until 2011. We disentangle three possible drivers for the linkage: substitution, energy costs, and financialization. The timing and magnitude of the biofuels-to-oil relationships are different to those of other commodities, and far higher than can be justified by costs and financialization. Substitution and costs drive the monthly correlations of long-term futures, and each of the three contribute equally to the daily co-movement of the short-term ones. The findings survive many robustness checks and appear in the stock market.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp695.
Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-04-10 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-04-10 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-04-10 (Environmental Economics)
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- Martin Banse & Hans van Meijl & Andrzej Tabeau & Geert Woltjer, 2008. "Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 117-141, June.
- Alberto Salvo & Cristian Huse, 2011. "Is Arbitrage Tying the Price of Ethanol to that of Gasoline? Evidence from the Uptake of Flexible-Fuel Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 119-148.
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