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Risk Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange Markets: A Comparison of Signal Extraction and Regression Methods

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  • Prasad V. Bidarkota

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Florida International University)

Abstract

We investigate time varying risk premia in forward dollar/pound monthly exchange rates over the last two decades. We study this issue using a signal plus noise model and separately using regression techniques. Our models account for time varying volatility and non-normalities in the observed series. Our signal plus noise model fails to isolate a statistically significant risk premium component whereas our regression model does. We attribute the discrepancy in the results from the two methods to the low power of the signal plus noise model in discriminating between a time varying risk premium component and a serially uncorrelated spot exchange rate expectational error. An important reason for the low power of the signal plus noise model is its failure to use information on current period forward rates in extracting the risk premium.

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File URL: http://casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2247/1275232205_05-01.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Florida International University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0501.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:0501

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Web page: http://casgroup.fiu.edu/Economics/
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Related research

Keywords: spot foreign exchange rates; forward foreign exchange rates; timevarying risk premium; signal extraction; non-normality; volatility persistence;

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  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February.
  2. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  4. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Modeling volatility dynamics," Research Paper 9522, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  7. Prasad V. Bidarkota & J. Huston McCulloch, . "Optimal Univariate Inflation Forecasting with Symmetric Stable Shocks," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 116, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Toan Pham, 2000. "Modeling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: Theory and Evidence," Research Paper Series 41, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  9. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec..
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