No Predictable Components in G7 Stock Returns
AbstractWe search for time-varying predictable components in monthly excess stock index returns over the risk free rates in the G7 countries. The predictable components provide an estimate of the expected excess returns. Our unobserved components model improves on Conrad and Kaul (1988) by taking into account fat tails widely documented in returns data. Statistical hypotheses tests fail to reveal any significant time-varying predictable components in excess returns for any of the countries, except Canada. Our results are in sharp contrast to Conrad and Kaul (1988), who do isolate time-varying expected returns in weekly sizeweighted portfolio returns using the same methodology but in a Gaussian setting.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Florida International University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0416.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
stock return predictability; unobserved components; fat tails; stable distributions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-08-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-08-13 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-08-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2005-08-13 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990.
"Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
- Prasad Bidarkota & J Huston Mcculloch, 2004. "Testing for persistence in stock returns with GARCH-stable shocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 256-265.
- Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 2001.
"Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 683-734, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1999. "Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1229, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Durbin, J. & Koopman, S.J.M., 1998.
"Time Series Analysis of Non-Gaussian Observations Based on State Space Models from Both Classical and Bayesian Perspectives,"
1998-142, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- J. Durbin & S. J. Koopman, 2000. "Time series analysis of non-Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 3-56.
- Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-25, October.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
- Khurshid M. Kiani, 2006. "Predictability in Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: Evidence from KSE 100 Stock Price Index," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 369-381.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sheng Guo).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.