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The Impact of Fat Tails on Equilibrium Rates of Return and Term Premia

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  • Prasad V. Bidarkota

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Florida International University)

  • Brice V. Dupoyet

    ()
    (Department of Finance, Florida International University)

Abstract

We investigate the impact of ignoring fat tails observed in the empirical distributions of macroeconomic time series on the equilibrium implications of the consumption-based asset-pricing model with habit formation. Fat tails in the empirical distributions of consumption growth rates are modeled as a dampened power law process that nevertheless guarantees finiteness of moments of all orders. This renders model-implied mean equilibrium rates of return and equity and term premia finite. Comparison with a benchmark Gaussian process reveals that accounting for fat tails lowers the model-implied mean risk-free rate by 20 percent, raises the mean equity premium by 80 percent and the term premium by 20 percent, bringing the model implications closer to their empirically observed counterparts.

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File URL: http://casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2245/1280267967_04-11.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Florida International University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0411.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:0411

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Keywords: pricing model; habit formation; term premium; equity premium; fat tails; dampened power law;

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References

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  1. Liuren Wu, 2004. "Dampened Power Law: Reconciling the Tail Behavior of Financial Security Returns," Finance 0401001, EconWPA.
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  6. Geweke, John, 2001. "A note on some limitations of CRRA utility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 341-345, June.
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  8. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
  9. Prasad Bidarkota & Khurshid M. Kiani, 2003. "On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries," Working Papers 0308, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
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  11. Tokat, Yesim & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "The stable non-Gaussian asset allocation: a comparison with the classical Gaussian approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 937-969, April.
  12. Andrew B. Abel, 1998. "Risk Premia and Term Premia in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 6683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bidarkota, Prasad V. & McCulloch, J. Huston, 2003. "Consumption asset pricing with stable shocks--exploring a solution and its implications for mean equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 399-421, January.
  14. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zhiguang (Gerald) Wang & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2010. "A Long-Run Risks Model of Asset Pricing with Fat Tails," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 409-449.
  2. Shaliastovich, Ivan & Tauchen, George, 2011. "Pricing of the time-change risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 843-858, June.
  3. Bidarkota, Prasad V. & Dupoyet, Brice V. & McCulloch, J. Huston, 2009. "Asset pricing with incomplete information and fat tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1314-1331, June.
  4. Zimper, Alexander, 2012. "Asset pricing in a Lucas fruit-tree economy with the best and worst in mind," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 610-628.
  5. Dupoyet, B. & Fiebig, H.R. & Musgrove, D.P., 2010. "Gauge invariant lattice quantum field theory: Implications for statistical properties of high frequency financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 107-116.

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