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On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries

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Author Info
Prasad Bidarkota () (Department of Economics, Florida International University)
Khurshid M. Kiani (Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University)

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Abstract

We investigate whether business cycle dynamics in seven industrialized countries (the G7) are characterized by asymmetries in conditional mean. We provide evidence on this issue using a variety of time series models. Our approach is fully parametric. Our testing strategy is robust to any conditional heteroskedasticity, outliers, and / or long memory that may be present. Our results indicate fairly strong evidence of nonlinearities in the conditional mean dynamics of the GDP growth rates for Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the US. For France and the UK, the conditional mean dynamics appear to be largely linear. Our study shows that while the existence of conditional heteroskedasticity and long memory does not have much affect on testing for linearity in the conditional mean, accounting for outliers does reduce the evidence against linearity.

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File URL: http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/economics/wp2003/03-08.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Florida International University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0308.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 66(3):333-351, (2004).
Handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:0308

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Web page: http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/economics/
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Related research
Keywords: business cycles; asymmetries; nonlinearities; conditional heteroskedasticity; long memory; outliers; real GDP; stable distributions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Khurshid M. KIANI & Terry L. KASTENS, 2006. "Using Macro-Financial Variables To Forecast Recessions. An Analysis Of Canada, 1957-2002," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Business Cycle Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Robust Evidence," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 99-120. [Downloadable!]
  3. Prasad V. Bidarkota & Brice V. Dupoyet, 2004. "The Impact of Fat Tails on Equilibrium Rates of Return and Term Premia," Working Papers 0411, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Khurshid Kiani, 2005. "Detecting Business Cycle Asymmetries Using Artificial Neural Networks and Time Series Models," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 65-89, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Zhiguang Wang & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2008. "A Long-Run Risks Model of Asset Pricing with Fat Tails," Working Papers 0810, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kiani, K.M., 2009. "Neural Networks to Detect Nonlinearities in Time Series: Analysis of Business Cycle in France and the United Kingdom," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bildirici, Melike & Alp, Aykaç, 2008. "The Relationship Between Wages and Productivity: TAR Unit Root and TAR Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1), pages 93-110. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christian Richter & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Coherences of the US Business," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 45, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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