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Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Volatility

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Author Info
Giampiero M. Gallo () (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti")

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Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the impact that stock returns recorded between market closing and opening the next business day have on intra-daily volatility. A simple test shows that the estimated volatility clustering of the intra-daily returns may be affected by a market opening surprise bias. An extension of the standard GARCH model is suggested here to include the effect of this surprise and is applied on a sample of largely traded US stocks. The performance of two specifications in which this effect is included is evaluated in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise relative to their standard counterparts.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti" in its series Econometrics Working Papers Archive with number wp2001_02.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2001_02

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Related research
Keywords: Volatility forecasting univariate GARCH market opening surprise bias.

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Gallo, G.M. & Pacini, B., 1998. "Early News Is Good News. The Effects of Market Opening on Market Volatility," Economics Working Papers eco98/3, European University Institute.
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  4. Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "Price Formation on Stock Exchanges: The Evolution of Trading within the Day," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 609-29. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. " Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-53, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Patrick Burns & Robert Engle & Joseph Mezrich, 1998. "Correlations and Volatilities of Asynchronous Data," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-30r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  7. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2008. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2008_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
  2. Giovanni De Luca & Giampiero Gallo, 2004. "Mixture Processes for Financial Intradaily Durations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 8(2), pages 1223-1223. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2007. "Volatility Forecasting Using Explanatory Variables and Focused Selection Criteria," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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