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Housing default: theory works and so does policy

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  • Allen C. Goodman
  • Brent C. Smith
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    Abstract

    Using a national loan level data set we examine loan default as explained by local demographic characteristics and state level legislation that regulates foreclosure procedures and predatory lending through a hierarchical linear model. We observe significant variation in the default rate across states, with lower default levels in states with higher temporal and financial costs to lenders when controlling for loan and location conditions. The results are notable given that many of the observed loans were sold to investors in national and international markets. State level legislative influences provide a foundation for discussion of national level policy that further regulates predatory lending and financial institution foreclosure activities.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 10-10.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:10-10

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    1. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2006. "Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 241-258, November.
    2. Keith D. Harvey & Peter J. Nigro, 2004. "Do Predatory Lending Laws Influence Mortgage Lending? An Analysis of the North Carolina Predatory Lending Law," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 435-456, December.
    3. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
    4. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 1998. "Housing Market Segmentation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 121-143, June.
    5. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-25, August.
    6. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-99, August.
    7. von Furstenberg, George M & Green, R Jeffery, 1974. "Home Mortgage Delinquencies: A Cohort Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(5), pages 1545-48, December.
    8. Alex O. Williams & William Beranek & James Kenkel, 1974. "Default Risk in Urban Mortgages: A Pittsburgh Prototype Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 101-112.
    9. Ho, Giang & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2006. "The impact of local predatory lending laws on the flow of subprime credit," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 210-228, September.
    10. James B. Kau & Taewon Kim, 1994. "Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 539-551.
    11. Gregory Elliehausen & Michael E. Staten, 2004. "Regulation of Subprime Mortgage Products: An Analysis of North Carolina's Predatory Lending Law," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 411-433, December.
    12. Chester Foster & Robert Order, 1985. "FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 273-291.
    13. Kelly D. Edmiston & Roger Zalneraitis, 2007. "Rising foreclosures in the United States: a perfect storm," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 115-145.
    14. Rose, Morgan J., 2008. "Predatory lending practices and subprime foreclosures: Distinguishing impacts by loan category," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 13-32.
    15. Clauretie, Terrence M & Herzog, Thomas N, 1990. "The Effect of State Foreclosure Laws on Loan Losses: Evidence from the Mortgage Insurance Industry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 221-33, May.
    16. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263.
    17. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2010. "Recourse and residential mortgage default: theory and evidence from U.S. states," Working Paper 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    18. Elliehausen, Gregory & Staten, Michael E. & Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2008. "The effect of prepayment penalties on the pricing of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 33-46.
    19. Xudong An & Raphael Bostic, 2008. "GSE Activity, FHA Feedback, and Implications for the Efficacy of the Affordable Housing Goals," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 207-231, February.
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