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Financial stability, deflation, and monetary policy

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Author Info
Marvin Goodfriend

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Abstract

The paper explores the relationship between financial stability, deflation, and monetary policy. A discussion of narrow liquidity, broad liquidity, market liquidity, and financial distress provides the foundation for the analysis. There are two preliminary conclusions. Equity prices are a misleading guide for interest rate policy. Monetary policy tactics protect market liquidity while maximizing the central bank's leverage over longer-term interest rates and aggregate demand. ; Monetary policy is a fundamental source of deflation and stagnation risk when price stability is fully credible. A central bank can be fooled by its own credibility for low inflation into being insufficiently preemptive in a business expansion. Then monetary policy can be constrained by the zero bound from reducing real interest rates enough in the subsequent contraction. The chain of events that leads to deflation and stagnation can be weakened or broken in a number of places. Monetary policy has the power to preempt deflation and the power to overcome the zero bound to restore prosperity after a deflationary shock. Fiscal policy is likely to be relatively ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 01-01.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:01-01

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Keywords: Deflation (Finance) Liquidity (Economics) Monetary policy Financial crises Interest rates Prices

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1996. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 5817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. R. Kato & S. Nishiyama, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 8, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andolfatto, David, 2003. "Monetary Implications of the Hayashi-Prescott Hypothesis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(4), pages 1-20, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jun Nagayasu, 2003. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During A Zero-Interest-Rate Period," IMF Working Papers 03/208, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2005. "The Effects of 'Gesell' (Currency) Taxes in Promoting Japan's Economic Recovery," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-94, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bergman, U. Michael & Hansen, Jan, 2002. "Financial Instability and Monetary Policy: The Swedish Evidence," Working Paper Series 137, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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