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Credit ratings and bank monitoring ability

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  • Leonard I. Nakamura
  • Kasper Roszbach.

Abstract

In this paper we use credit rating data from two large Swedish banks to elicit evidence on banks’ loan monitoring ability. For these banks, our tests reveal that banks’ credit ratings indeed include valuable private information from monitoring, as theory suggests. However, our tests also reveal that publicly available information from a credit bureau is not efficiently impounded in the bank ratings: The credit bureau ratings not only predict future movements in the bank ratings but also improve forecasts of bankruptcy and loan default. We investigate possible explanations for these findings. Our results are consistent with bank loan officers placing too much weight on their private information, a form of overconfidence. To the extent that overconfidence results in placing too much weight on private information, risk analyses of the bank loan portfolios in our data could be improved by combining the bank credit ratings and public credit bureau ratings. The methods we use represent a new basket of straightforward techniques that enable both financial institutions and regulators to assess the performance of credit rating systems. ; Supersedes Working Paper 10-21.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 13-21.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-21

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Keywords: Credit ratings ; Risk assessment;

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References

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  1. Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2009. "Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks," NBER Working Papers 14787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, 08.
  4. Loffler, Gunter, 2004. "Ratings versus market-based measures of default risk in portfolio governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2715-2746, November.
  5. Paul Povel & Rajdeep Singh & Andrew Winton, 2007. "Booms, Busts, and Fraud," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1219-1254.
  6. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 1998. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
  8. Cantor, Richard, 2004. "An introduction to recent research on credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2565-2573, November.
  9. Andrew Hertzberg & Jose Maria Liberti & Daniel Paravisini, 2010. "Information and Incentives Inside the Firm: Evidence from Loan Officer Rotation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 795-828, 06.
  10. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Weber, Martin, 2001. "Generally accepted rating principles: A primer," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23, January.
  11. Keys, Benjamin J. & Mukherjee, Tanmoy & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2009. "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 700-720, July.
  12. Sumit Agarwal, 2010. "Distance and Private Information in Lending," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(7), pages 2757-2788, July.
  13. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
  14. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2004. "Information and bank credit allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 185-214, April.
  15. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2006. "Internal ratings systems, implied credit risk and the consistency of banks' risk classification policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1899-1926, July.
  2. Rym Ayadi & Beat Bernet & Simone Westerfeld & Tom Franck & Nancy Huyghebaert & Vítor Gaspar & Simona Bovha-Padilla & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2009. "Financing of SMEs in Europe," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  3. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2010. "Durable financial regulation: monitoring financial instruments as a counterpart to regulating financial institutions," Working Papers 10-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Leonard Nakamura, 2012. "Durable financial regulation: monitoring financial instruments as a counterpart to regulating financial institutions," Working Papers 13-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Miloš Božovic & Branko Uroševic & Boško Živkovic, 2011. "Credit Rating Agencies and Moral Hazard," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(2), pages 219-227, June.
  6. repec:fip:fedpwp:13-2 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Rym Ayadi & Beat Bernet & Simona Bovha-Padilla & Tom Franck & Nancy Huyghebaert & Vitor Gaspar & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2009. "Financing SMEs in Europe," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2009/3 edited by Morten Balling & Beat Bernet & Ernest Gnan.
  8. Leonard Nakamura, 2011. "Durable Financial Regulation: Monitoring Financial Instruments as a Counterpart to Regulating Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 17006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Marieke Bos & Leonard Nakamura, 2012. "Should defaults be forgotten? Evidence from legally mandated removal," Working Papers 12-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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