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Credit ratings and bank monitoring ability

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  • Leonard I. Nakamura
  • Kasper Roszbach.

Abstract

In this paper, the authors use credit rating data from two Swedish banks to elicit evidence on banks' loan monitoring ability. They test the banks' ability to forecast credit bureau ratings, and vice versa, and show that bank ratings are able to predict future credit bureau ratings. This is evidence that bank credit ratings, consistent with theory, contain valuable private information. However, the authors also find that public ratings have an ability to predict future bank ratings, implying that internal bank ratings do not fully or efficiently incorporate all publicly available information. This suggests that risk analyses by banks or regulators should be based on both internal bank ratings and public ratings. They also document that the credit bureau ratings add information to the bank ratings in predicting bankruptcy and loan default. The methods the authors use represent a new basket of straightforward techniques that enables both financial institutions and regulators to assess the performance of credit ratings systems.

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File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2010/wp10-21.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 10-21.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:10-21

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Keywords: Credit ratings ; Risk assessment;

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References

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  1. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-67, August.
  2. Cantor, Richard, 2004. "An introduction to recent research on credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2565-2573, November.
  3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2012. "Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2798-2825, October.
  4. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Weber, Martin, 2001. "Generally accepted rating principles: A primer," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23, January.
  5. Andrew Hertzberg & Jose Maria Liberti & Daniel Paravisini, 2010. "Information and Incentives Inside the Firm: Evidence from Loan Officer Rotation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 795-828, 06.
  6. Keys, Benjamin J. & Mukherjee, Tanmoy & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2009. "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 700-720, July.
  7. Paul Povel & Rajdeep Singh & Andrew Winton, 2003. "Booms, Busts, and Fraud," Finance 0312007, EconWPA.
  8. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
  9. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2004. "Information and bank credit allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 185-214, April.
  10. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
  11. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  12. Sumit Agarwal, 2010. "Distance and Private Information in Lending," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(7), pages 2757-2788, July.
  13. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
  14. Jacobson, Tor & Kindell, Rikard & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper F., 2008. "Firm Default and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 7083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Loffler, Gunter, 2004. "Ratings versus market-based measures of default risk in portfolio governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2715-2746, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rym Ayadi & Beat Bernet & Simone Westerfeld & Tom Franck & Nancy Huyghebaert & Vítor Gaspar & Simona Bovha-Padilla & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2009. "Financing of SMEs in Europe," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  2. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2006. "Internal ratings systems, implied credit risk and the consistency of banks' risk classification policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1899-1926, July.
  3. Miloš Božovic & Branko Uroševic & Boško Živkovic, 2011. "Credit Rating Agencies and Moral Hazard," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(2), pages 219-227, June.
  4. Leonard Nakamura, 2012. "Durable financial regulation: monitoring financial instruments as a counterpart to regulating financial institutions," Working Papers 13-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2010. "Durable financial regulation: monitoring financial instruments as a counterpart to regulating financial institutions," Working Papers 10-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. Marieke Bos & Leonard Nakamura, 2012. "Should defaults be forgotten? Evidence from legally mandated removal," Working Papers 12-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Leonard Nakamura, 2011. "Durable Financial Regulation: Monitoring Financial Instruments as a Counterpart to Regulating Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 17006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rym Ayadi & Beat Bernet & Simona Bovha-Padilla & Tom Franck & Nancy Huyghebaert & Vitor Gaspar & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2009. "Financing SMEs in Europe," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2009/3 edited by Morten Balling & Beat Bernet & Ernest Gnan.
  9. repec:fip:fedpwp:13-2 is not listed on IDEAS

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