IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/32.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Option-implied probability distributions and currency excess returns

Author

Listed:
  • Allan M. Malz

Abstract

This paper describes a method of extracting the risk-neutral probability distribution of future exchange rates from option prices. In foreign exchange markets interbank option pricing conventions make possible reliable inferences about risk-neutral probability distributions with relatively little data. Moments drawn from risk-neutral exchange rate distribution are used to explore several issues related to the puzzle of excess returns in currency markets. Tests of the international capital asset pricing model using risk-neutral moments as explanatory variables indicate that option-based moments have considerably greater explanatory power for excess returns in currency markets than has been found in earlier work. Tests of several hypotheses generated by the peso problem approach indicate that jump risk measured by the risk-neutral coefficient of skewness can explain only a small part of the forward bias. These tests take into account not only the second, but the third and fourth moments of the exchange rate implied by option prices, and avoid testing a joint hypothesis including a distributional assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan M. Malz, 1997. "Option-implied probability distributions and currency excess returns," Staff Reports 32, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr32.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr32.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge R. Sobehart, 2005. "A Forward Looking, Singular Perturbation Approach To Pricing Options Under Market Uncertainty And Trading Noise," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(05), pages 635-658.
    2. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Teiletche, Jérôme, 2009. "Foreign-exchange intervention strategies and market expectations: insights from Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 432-446, July.
    3. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    4. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2019. "Intraday volume-volatility nexus in the FX markets: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
    7. Taylor, Stephen J. & Yadav, Pradeep K. & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2010. "The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 871-881, April.
    8. Annalisa Molino & Carlo Sala, 2021. "Forecasting value at risk and conditional value at risk using option market data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1190-1213, November.
    9. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Working Papers 200510, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    10. Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "CaninformationonthedistributionofZARreturnsbeusedtoimproveSARBsZARforecasts," Working Papers 11035, South African Reserve Bank.
    12. Aron Gereben, 2002. "Extracting market expectations from option prices?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, March.
    13. Aron Gereben, 2002. "Extracting market expectations from option prices: an application to over-the-counter New Zealand dollar options," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
    15. Marie Briere, 2006. "Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies :Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles," Working Papers CEB 38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. L. Spadafora & G. P. Berman & F. Borgonovi, 2011. "Adiabaticity conditions for volatility smile in Black-Scholes pricing model," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 79(1), pages 47-53, January.
    17. Matthias Muck, 2022. "Arbitrage-free smile construction on FX option markets using Garman-Kohlhagen deltas and implied volatilities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 293-314, October.
    18. Marie Brière & Kamal Chancari, 2004. "Perception des risques sur les marchés, construction d'un indice élaboré à partir des smiles d'options et test de stratégies," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(4), pages 527-555.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.