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When is U.S. bank lending to emerging markets volatile?

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  • Linda S. Goldberg

Abstract

Using bank-specific data on U.S. bank claims on individual foreign countries since the mid-1980s, this paper 1) characterizes the size and portfolio diversification patterns of the U.S. banks engaging in foreign lending, and 2) econometrically explores the determinants of fluctuations in U.S. bank claims on a broad set of countries. U.S. bank claims on Latin American and Asian emerging markets, and on industrialized countries, are sensitive to U.S. macroeconomic conditions. When the United States grows rapidly, there is substitution between claims on industrialized countries and claims on the United States. The pattern of response of claims on emerging markets to U.S. conditions differs across banks of different sizes and across emerging market regions. Moreover, we find that, unlike U.S. bank claims on industrialized countries, claims on emerging markets are not highly sensitive to local country GDP and interest rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 119.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:119

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Keywords: Loans; Foreign ; International finance ; Developing countries;

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  1. Linda Goldberg & B. Gerard Dages & Daniel Kinney, 2000. "Foreign and Domestic Bank Participation in Emerging Markets: Lessons from Mexico and Argentina," NBER Working Papers 7714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hancock, Diana & Wilcox, James A., 1998. "The "credit crunch" and the availability of credit to small business," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 983-1014, August.
  4. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1996. "The international transmission of financial shocks: the case of Japan," Working Papers 96-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Real Exchange Rate Linkages in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
  7. David E. Palmer, 2000. "U.S. bank exposure to emerging-market countries during recent financial crises," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 81-96.
  8. Diana Hancock and James A. Wilcox., 1998. "The "Credit Crunch" and the Availability of Credit to Small Business," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-282, University of California at Berkeley.
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