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Risk Aversion, Global Asset Prices, and Fed Tightening Signals

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Abstract

The global sell-off last May of emerging market equities and currencies of countries with high interest rates (“carry-trade” currencies) has been attributed to changes in the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, since the sell-off took place immediately following Chairman Bernanke’s May 22 comments concerning the future of the Fed’s asset purchase programs. In this post, we look back at global asset market developments over the past summer, and measure how changes in global risk aversion affected the values of carry-trade currencies and emerging market equities between May and September of last year. We find that the initial signal of a possible change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with an increase in global risk aversion, which put downward pressure on global asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Peck, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Global Asset Prices, and Fed Tightening Signals," Liberty Street Economics 20140305, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:86930
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    Keywords

    aversion; volatility; currencies; global asset prices; global risk aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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