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Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded

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  • Han Gao
  • Mariano Kulish
  • Juan Pablo Nicolini

Abstract

In this paper, we review the relationship between inflation rates, nominal interest rates, and rates of growth of monetary aggregates for a large group of OECD countries. If persistent changes in the monetary policy regime are accounted for, the behavior of these series maintains the close relationship predicted by standard quantity theory models. With an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to alternative frictions that can deliver quite different high-frequency dynamics. We also show that the low-frequency component of the data derived from statistical filters does reasonably well in capturing these regime changes. We conclude that the quantity theory relationships are alive and well, and thus they are useful for policy design aimed at controlling inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Gao & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2021. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded," Staff Report 633, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93495
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.633
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; Monetary aggregates; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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