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Fragility of reputation and clustering of risk-taking

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  • Guillermo L. Ordoñez

Abstract

Concerns about constructing and maintaining good reputations are known to reduce borrowers' excessive risk-taking. However, I find that the self-discipline induced by these concerns is fragile, and can break down without obvious changes in economic fundamentals. Furthermore, in the aggregate, breakdowns are clustered among borrowers with intermediate and good reputations, which can exacerbate an economy's weakness and contribute to a broad economic crisis. These results come from an aggregate dynamic global game analysis of reputation formation in credit markets. The selection of a unique equilibrium is accomplished by assuming that borrowers have incomplete information about economic fundamentals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 431.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:431

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Keywords: Risk;

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  1. Andrew Atkeson & Christian Hellwig & Guillermo Ordonez, 2012. "Optimal Regulation in the Presence of Reputation Concerns," NBER Working Papers 17898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2007. "Strategic Merger Waves: A Theory of Musical Chairs," CEPR Discussion Papers 6159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Radhakrishnan Gopalan & Vikram Nanda & Vijay Yerramilli, 2011. "Does Poor Performance Damage the Reputation of Financial Intermediaries? Evidence from the Loan Syndication Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2083-2120, December.
  4. Siem Jan Koopman & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas & Andre Monteiro, 2006. "Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-023/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Veronica Guerrieri & Peter Kondor, 2010. "Fund managers, career concerns, and asset price volatility," Staff Report 446, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  8. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153, October.
  10. Tykvova, Tereza, 2007. "Who chooses whom? Syndication, skills and reputation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 5-28.
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  17. Flavio Toxvaerd & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2004. "Recursive global games," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 104, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  18. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
  19. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1983. "Incentive Effects of Terminations: Applications to the Credit and Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 912-27, December.
  20. Sylvain Chassang, 2010. "Fear of Miscoordination and the Robustness of Cooperation in Dynamic Global Games With Exit," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 973-1006, 05.
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  22. Victor Rios-Rull & Dean Corbae: & Satyajit Chatterjee, 2011. "A Theory of Credit Scoring and the Competitive Pricing of Default Risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1115, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Cited by:
  1. Guillermo L. Ordonez, 2010. "Confidence Banking," 2010 Meeting Papers 310, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Guillermo Ordonez & Gary Gorton, 2011. "Collateral Crises," 2011 Meeting Papers 569, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Guillermo Ordonez, 2013. "Sustainable Shadow Banking," NBER Working Papers 19022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bernardita Vial & Felipe Zurita, 2013. "Reputation-Driven Industry Dynamics," Documentos de Trabajo 436, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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