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A Markov switching model of GNP growth with duration dependence

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  • Pok-san Lam

Abstract

We use a regime-switching model of real GNP growth to examine the duration dependence of business cycles. The model extends Hamilton (1989) and Durland and McCurdy (1994) and is estimated using both the postwar NIPA data and the secular data constructed by Balke-Gordon. We find that an expansion is more likely to end at a young age, that a contraction is more likely to end at an old age, that output growth slows over the course of an expansion, that a decline in output is mild at the beginning of a contraction, and that long expansions are followed by long contractions. This evidence taken together provides no support for the clustering of the whole-cycle around seven-to-ten year durations.

Suggested Citation

  • Pok-san Lam, 1997. "A Markov switching model of GNP growth with duration dependence," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 124, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, March.
    2. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B: Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.
    2. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2000. "Volatility dynamics under duration-dependent mixing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 345-372, November.
    3. Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Equity, credit and the business cycle," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 939-954, June.

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    Keywords

    Gross national product; Business cycles;

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