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Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the 1937-38 Recession? New Evidence on the Impact of Reserve Requirements on Bank Reserve Demand and Lending

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In 1936-37, the Federal Reserve doubled member banks' reserve requirements. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) famously argued that the doubling increased reserve demand and forced the money supply to contract, which they argued caused the recession of 1937-38. Using a new database on individual banks, we show that higher reserve requirements did not generally increase banks' reserve demand or contract lending because reserve requirements were not binding for most banks. Aggregate effects on credit supply from reserve requirement increases were therefore economically small and statistically zero.

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  • Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason & David C. Wheelock, 2022. "Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the 1937-38 Recession? New Evidence on the Impact of Reserve Requirements on Bank Reserve Demand and Lending," Working Papers 2022-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 15 Aug 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94179
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2022.011
    Note: Publisher DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2023.101056
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    1. Irwin, Douglas A., 2012. "Gold sterilization and the recession of 1937–19381," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 249-267, December.
    2. Calomiris, Charles W. & Mason, Joseph R. & Wheelock, David C., 2011. "Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the Recession of 1937-1938? A Microeconomic Approach," Working Papers 11-03, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. Haelim Park & Patrick Van Horn, 2015. "Did the Reserve Requirement Increases of 1936–37 Reduce Bank Lending? Evidence from a Quasi‐Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 791-818, August.
    4. Charles W. Calomiris & Berry Wilson, 2004. "Bank Capital and Portfolio Management: The 1930s "Capital Crunch" and the Scramble to Shed Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 421-456, July.
    5. William A. Barnett, 2000. "The Optimal Level of Monetary Aggregation," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 125-149, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Cargill, Thomas F. & Mayer, Thomas, 2006. "The Effect of Changes in Reserve Requirements During the 1930s: The Evidence from Nonmember Banks," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 417-432, June.
    7. Jaremski, Matthew & Wheelock, David C., 2020. "The Founding of the Federal Reserve, the Great Depression, and the Evolution of the U.S. Interbank Network," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 69-99, March.
    8. James A. Wilcox, 1984. "Excess Reserves in the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June.
    10. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 757-784, December.
    11. Mr. Peter Stella, 2009. "The Federal Reserve System Balance Sheet: What Happened and Why it Matters," IMF Working Papers 2009/120, International Monetary Fund.
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    13. Calomiris, Charles W & Hubbard, R Glenn, 1995. "Internal Finance and Investment: Evidence from the Undistributed Profits Tax of 1936-37," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 443-482, October.
    14. Charles Calomiris & David Wheelock, 1998. "Was the Great Depression a Watershed for American Monetary Policy?," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 23-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Hanes, Christopher, 2006. "The Liquidity Trap and U.S. Interest Rates in the 1930s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 163-194, February.
    16. Calomiris, Charles W. & Carlson, Mark, 2017. "Interbank networks in the National Banking Era: Their purpose and their role in the Panic of 1893," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 434-453.
    17. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2006. "The mistake of 1931: A general equilibrium analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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    1. Charles W. Calomiris, 2023. "Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(4), pages 223-233, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    reserve requirements; reserve demand; excess reserves; money multiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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