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Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending in China

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  • Xin Wang
  • Yi Wen

Abstract

Government spending plays an important role in determining economic performances in China. Its macroeconomic effects are analyzed in this paper. We show that government spending in China (i) Granger-causes output, consumption and investment booms as well as inflation and (ii) has a multiplier larger than 1. The large multiplier effects are found not only in aggregate time-series data but also in panel data at the provincial level. We also provide a theoretical model and Monte Carlo analysis to rationalize our empirical findings. Our theoretical and Monte Carlo analyses support the large multiplier found in China but also suggests that government spending is not necessarily a free lunch in spite of the large multiplier effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Wang & Yi Wen, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending in China," Working Papers 2013-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-013
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2013.013
    Note: Previously titled as "Is government spending a free lunch? -- evidence from China"
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Wen, 2020. "Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 59-71.
    2. Li, Mingyang & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Faster fiscal stimulus and a higher government spending multiplier in China: Mixed-frequency identification with SVAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Fei Guo & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan, 2021. "Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Multiplier in China," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_026, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Guo, Shen & Liu, Lezheng & Zhao, Yan, 2015. "The business cycle implications of land financing in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 225-237.
    5. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2015. "Assessing the impact of the Chinese stimulus package at home and abroad: A damp squib?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-162.
    6. Li, Rong & Zhou, Yijiang, 2021. "Estimating local fiscal multipliers using political connections," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Tang, Le, 2022. "The dynamic demand for capital and labor: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    8. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Chang, Long, 2021. "Monetary–fiscal policy regime and macroeconomic dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 121-135.
    9. Peter Rangazas & Xiaobing Wang & Yuxiang Zou, 2022. "China's efficient urban bias," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 223-253, August.
    10. Yanying Zhang & Yiuman Tse & Gaiyan Zhang, 2022. "Return predictability between industries and the stock market in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 194-220, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Spending; Fiscal Multiplier; Economic Development; Chinese Economy; Inflationary Finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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