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Self-fulfilling credit cycles

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  • Costas Azariadis
  • Leo Kaas
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Abstract

This paper argues that self-fulfilling beliefs in credit conditions can generate endoge- nously persistent business cycle dynamics. We develop a tractable dynamic general equi- librium model in which heterogeneous firms face idiosyncratic productivity shocks. Capital from less productive firms is lent to more productive ones in the form of credit secured by collateral and also as unsecured credit based on reputation. A dynamic complemen- tarity between current and future credit constraints permits uncorrelated sunspot shocks to trigger persistent aggregate fluctuations in debt, factor productivity and output. In a calibrated version we compare the features of sunspot cycles with those generated by shocks to economic fundamentals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2012-047.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-047

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Keywords: Credit ; Business cycles;

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  1. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2013. "Sunspots And Credit Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(05), pages 1055-1069, July.
  2. Timothy J Kehoe & David K Levine, 1993. "Debt Constrained Asset Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1276, David K. Levine.
  3. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
  4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," CEP Discussion Papers dp1195, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Cordoba, Juan & Ripoll, Marla, 2002. "Credit Cycles Redux," Working Papers 2002-07, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    • Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
  6. Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "Bubbles and Self-enforcing Debt," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000383, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Working Papers 12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chao Gu & Randall Wright, 2011. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 17510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Vincenzo Quadrini & Fabrizio Perri, 2010. "International recessions," 2010 Meeting Papers 222, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Francois Gourio & Anil K Kashyap, 2007. "Investment Spikes: New Facts And A General Equilibrium Exploration," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-006, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  12. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2013. "Endogenous credit limits with small default costs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 806-824.
  13. Leo Kaas & Costas Azariadis, 2009. "Capital misallocation and aggregate factor productivity," 2009 Meeting Papers 953, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  15. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 18102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 2001. "Liquidity Constrained Markets versus Debt Constrained Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 575-98, May.
  17. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 1998. "Credit and Business Cycles," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 18-35, 03.
  18. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2007. "Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 126-143, September.
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