Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century
AbstractThis paper examines the association between monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany during the 20th century. Booms tended to arise when output growth was rapid and inflation was low, and end within a few months of an increase in inflation and monetary policy tightening. Latent variable VAR analysis of post-war data finds that inflation has had a particularly strong impact on market conditions, with disinflation shocks moving the market toward a boom and positive inflation shocks moving the market toward a bust. We conclude that central banks can contribute to financial market stability by minimizing unanticipated changes in inflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2007-020.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-06-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-HIS-2007-06-23 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2007-06-23 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-06-23 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Efrem Castelnuovo & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010.
"Stock Market Conditions and Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model for the U.S,"
"Marco Fanno" Working Papers
0107, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
- Castelnuovo , Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in an DSGE model for the US," Research Discussion Papers 11/2010, Bank of Finland.
- Aldo Musacchio, 2010. "Law and Finance c. 1900," NBER Working Papers 16216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2010. "Impact of the global crisis on the linkages between the interest rates and the stock prices in Romania," MPRA Paper 36716, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Feb 2011.
- Lichao Cheng & Yi Jin & Zhixiong Zeng, 2011. "Asset Prices, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation," Monash Economics Working Papers 13-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs E:47/2012, Bank of Finland.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Xiao Xiaohong) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Xiao Xiaohong to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.