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Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Michael J. Dueker
  • David C. Wheelock

Abstract

This paper examines the association between monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany during the 20th century. Booms tended to arise when output growth was rapid and inflation was low, and end within a few months of an increase in inflation and monetary policy tightening. Latent variable VAR analysis of post-war data finds that inflation has had a particularly strong impact on market conditions, with disinflation shocks moving the market toward a boom and positive inflation shocks moving the market toward a bust. We conclude that central banks can contribute to financial market stability by minimizing unanticipated changes in inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2007-020.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2007-020

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Stock exchanges;

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Cited by:
  1. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
  2. Lichao Cheng & Yi Jin & Zhixiong Zeng, 2011. "Asset Prices, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 13-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  3. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs E:47/2012, Bank of Finland.
  4. Aldo Musacchio, 2010. "Law and Finance c. 1900," NBER Working Papers 16216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Cheng, Lichao & Jin, Yi, 2013. "Asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations: An empirical investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 24-27.
  6. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2010. "Impact of the global crisis on the linkages between the interest rates and the stock prices in Romania," MPRA Paper 36716, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Feb 2011.
  7. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.

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