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Stochastic capital depreciation and the comovement of hours and productivity

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  • Michael J. Dueker
  • Andreas M. Fischer
  • Robert D. Dittmar

Abstract

An unresolved question concerning stochastic depreciation shocks is whether they have to be unrealistically large to have any useful role in a dynamic general equilibrium model economy, as Ambler and Paquet (1994) first suggested. We first consider implied depreciation rates from sectoral data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These depreciation rates vary across time solely due to compositional changes within each sector. Hence, they tend to understate the range of fluctuation that would hold if the economic shelf life of capital varied endogenously as in Cooley, Greenwood and Yorukoglu (1997). We find, however, that if depreciation rates follow a Markov switching process, a low variance of the depreciation rate can generate the low correlation between hours worked and productivity in a simple model economy. White noise and autoregressive depreciation shocks, in contrast, require a counterfactually large variance in the depreciation rate to reduce the hours-productivity correlation. We also illustrate the level effects implied by nonlinear decision rules in simulations of dynamic general equilibrium models that include Markov switching parameters. Linear decision rules, in contrast, imply certainty equivalence and ignore the aversion that agents have to the skewed shock distributions that characterize Markov switching.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2002-003.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2002-003

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Keywords: Econometric models ; Productivity;

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Cited by:
  1. Pedro P. Alvarez-Lois, 2005. "Production Inflexibilities and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 170-193, January.
  2. Paul Pichler, 2007. "On the accuracy of low-order projection methods," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(50), pages 1-8.
  3. Belaygorod, Anatoliy & Dueker, Michael, 2009. "Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 624-648, March.
  4. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2009. "Measuring Total Factor Productivity and Variable Factor Utilisation: Sector Approach, The Case of Latvia," Working Papers 2009/03, Latvijas Banka.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Bitros, George C., 2009. "The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Conceptual Foundations," MPRA Paper 17436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Tom Holden, 2012. "Medium-frequency cycles and the remarkable near trend-stationarity of output," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1412, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  8. George Bitros, 2010. "The theorem of proportionality in contemporary capital theory: An assessment of its conceptual foundations," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 367-401, December.
  9. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Alasdair Scott & Jana Eklund, 2008. "Breaks in DSGE models," 2008 Meeting Papers 657, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:50:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Francesco Furlanetto & Martin Seneca, 2011. "New perspectives on depreciation shocks as a source of business cycle fluctuations," Working Paper 2011/02, Norges Bank.
  13. Inwon Jang & Hyeon-seung Huh & Richard Wong, 2008. "Optimal capital investment under uncertainty: An extension," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(4), pages 1-7.
  14. Poudel, Diwakar & Sandal, Leif K. & Kvamsdal, Sturla F. & Steinshamn, Stein I., 2011. "Fisheries Management under Irreversible Investment: Does Stochasticity Matter?," Discussion Papers 2011/20, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  15. Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2013. "Generational Risk–Is It a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model with Aggregate Shocks," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2013-01, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory.

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