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To chain or not to chain trade-weighted exchange rate indexes

Author

Listed:
  • Jerram C. Betts
  • Cletus C. Coughlin
  • Patricia S. Pollard

Abstract

With the advent of chain calculations for the U.S. national income and product accounts, it seems reasonable to contemplate using the chain approach for other indexes, such as trade-weighted exchange rates (TWEXs). A fundamental criticism of measuring the growth of gross domestic product by a fixed-base-year method is that the estimates are highly sensitive, especially when the economy?s structure is changing dramatically, to the arbitrary choice of the base year. Such a criticism can be levied against TWEXs. In fact, even TWEXs constructed using a Paasche index rather than a Laspeyres index have problems related to base periods. We examine theoretically and empirically the use ofa chain TWEX in relation to two well-known TWEX indexes: the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta index, which uses a Laspeyres index, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas index, which uses a Paasche index. The choice of base year alters the behavior ofthe dollar in these two indexes. We contrast this result with the behavior of the dollar in comparable chain TWEXs, where the base year sensitivity is absent. Our results indicate that developers of TWEXs, as well as those revising TWEXs, should consider a chain approach. Furthermore, users need to be aware of the sensitivity of TWEXs to changes in either the base period for trade weights or the reference base period for exchange rates

Suggested Citation

  • Jerram C. Betts & Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1997. "To chain or not to chain trade-weighted exchange rate indexes," Working Papers 1996-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1996-010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996. "A question of measurement: is the dollar rising or falling?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(Jul), pages 3-18.
    2. Jeffrey A. Rosensweig, 1986. "A new dollar index: capturing a more global perspective," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jun, pages 12-22.
    3. Cletus C. Coughlin & Thomas B. Mandelbaum, 1991. "Measuring state exports: is there a better way?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-79.
    4. William L. Helkie & B. Dianne Pauls, 1987. "A reassessment of measures of the dollar's effective exchange value," International Finance Discussion Papers 306, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Feinberg, Robert M, 1991. "The Choice of Exchange-Rate Index and Domestic Price Passthrough," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 409-420, June.
    6. R. G. D. Allen, 1975. "Index Numbers in Theory and Practice," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-02312-7.
    7. Menon, Jayant, 1995. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
    8. W. Michael Cox, 1986. "A new alternative trade-weighted dollar exchange rate index," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 20-28.
    9. Dallas S. Batten & Michael T. Belongia, 1987. "Do the new exchange rate indexes offer better answers to old questions?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 5-17.
    10. B. Dianne Pauls, 1987. "Measuring the foreign-exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 411-422.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1998. "Constructing and using national and regional TWEXs: the case for chaining," Working Papers 1998-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Armando Ibarra, 1999. "Indíce Encadenado de la Tasa de Cambio Real Regional Ponderado por el Comercio de Exportación," Borradores de Economia 122, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Juan Pablo Cote-Barón & Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & María Alejandra Hernández-Montes, 2021. "Un nuevo índice de tasa de cambio real para Colombia: ajuste por competencia en terceros mercados," Borradores de Economia 1188, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000. "Exchange rate pass-through in U. S. manufacturing: exchange rate index choice and asymmetry issues," Working Papers 2000-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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