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U.S. official forecasts of Group of Seven economic performance, 1976-90

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  • Michael Ulan
  • William G. Dewald
  • James B. Bullard

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of the U.S. Treasury Department forecasts of real growth and inflation from 1976 to 1990 for the Group of Seven (G-7) economies. The accuracy of these forecasts is measured against the standard of actual real world growth and inflation as subsequently published in the Treasury's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The primary comparison is to forecasts made by the OECD for each of the G-7 nations, but for the United States and Canada, we compare the forecasts to those made by the Blue Chip consensus and the Federal Reserve 'Greenbook'.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1994-030.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Publication status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 1995, 72(2)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1994-030

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Keywords: Group of Seven countries ; Inflation (Finance);

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